Bringing the forest, land, and agriculture (FLAG) sector on a pathway for a 1.5°C world

The forest, land, and agriculture (FLAG) sector accounts for around 25% of net anthropogenic GHG emissions. Resulting from this, mitigation efforts in the sector are crucial to meet the target of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C – or at least to well below 2°C.

In the following we will look at what the FLAG sector can contribute and what measures it would take.

What the FLAG sector can contribute

Based on an assessment of both top-down mitigation pathways and bottom-up measures for the 1.5°C target, the FLAG sector can contribute around 30% or 15 billion tons of carbon dioxide mitigation per year of the total required global mitigation by 2050.

This, however, requires a systemic transformation across the systems agriculture, forestry, wetlands, and bioenergy.

Overview of measures

The graph below gives an overview of the required activities and their mitigation potential for the 1.5°C target by 2050. Until then, the mitigation potential of the FLAG sector is gradually built up.

Source: Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 °C world (Roe et al., 2019)

As can be seen, around 31% stem from land use change in terms of emission reduction from deforestation and degradation, conversion of coastal wetlands, and peatland burning.

Here the focus lies on activities such as implementing conservation policies, sustainable commodity production and improved supply chain traceability. In terms of geographical region, tropical countries and particularly those that are hosting extensive rainforests such as Brazil and Indonesia need to be prioritized.

Another around 43% stem from carbon removals and storage by means of forest, coastal wetlands and drained peatlands restoration, improved forest management and agroforestry, and enhancing soil carbon sequestration capacity.

Here the focus lies on activities such as investing in restoration, payments for ecosystem services, implementing and enforcing national and local policies, integrating agroforestry into existing agricultural activities, and other regenerative agricultural practices such as conservation tillage and biochar amendments. In terms of geographical region, the focus is global.

Finally, the remaining 26% are a mix of carbon removal and storage through deploying BECCS, changing land management practices leading to emission reduction, and behavioral changes in terms of food waste and a shift to plant-based diets.

Here the focus lies on activities such as reducing methane and nitrous oxide emissions stemming from enteric fermentation and synthetic fertilizer production. Moreover, as for behavioral changes, around 50% of the population would need to adopt a plant-based diet while food waste would need to be reduced by 50% as well by 2050. Once again, in terms of geographical region, there is a global need to act.